The 2026 Mobile Home Park Industry Outlook in Five Charts

Five data points capture where MHP is in 2026. The headline: it's a transitioning market — cap rates that compressed for a decade have stabilized, infill demand is back to mid-2010s levels, and lender appetite is finally returning to pre-rate-shock numbers. The operators who outperform are the ones who can read the data, not the ones who chase headlines.

Cap rates: stabilization, not compression

After three years of cap-rate-rising headlines, the 2026 transaction data shows cap rates flat at roughly 6.5–7.5% on stabilized assets in tier-1 metros. Tier-2 markets are 7.5–9%. The 5% caps of 2021 are gone and not coming back, but the panic-pricing of 2023 is also gone.

What this means: deals are pricing on real numbers again. Sellers have accepted the new reality; buyers can underwrite without leaving 200 bps of margin for surprise.

Infill demand: real and rising

Manufactured-housing shipment data for 2025 was up 11% year over year — the biggest single-year gain since 2018. New-home demand at parks is back; the bottleneck has shifted from "will buyers come" to "can dealers deliver fast enough."

Operators with dealer relationships outperform; operators without them are watching empty lots while their competitors fill.

Lender appetite: returning, selectively

Agency lenders (Fannie/Freddie) are back to active programs at LTVs of 70–75% on stabilized parks. Bridge lenders are pricing more aggressively than 2024. CMBS is in but at lower LTVs than the 2021 peak.

What this means for operators planning a refi in 2026–2027: the rate gap to the prior-cycle financing has narrowed, but it hasn't closed. Underwrite for a 50–75 bps higher rate than what you have today.

Rent control: still slow-moving but real

Five new states introduced MHP-specific rent-control bills in 2025. None passed, but the political momentum is there in California, Oregon, Washington, New York, and New Jersey. Operators in those states should plan for a 5–10% annual cap as a base case for 2027–2028.

Software adoption: finally mainstream

Surveys of operators with 500+ lots show 78% on park-management software in 2026, up from 51% in 2022. The remaining 22% are mostly single-park owner-operators. The era of running parks on spreadsheets has effectively ended at scale.